Questions Linger After Gay Marriage Frenzy
Published: May 11, 2012
Questions Linger After Gay Marriage Frenzy, President Obama made history at the White House yesterday when he told my GMA co-anchor Robin Roberts that he supports same-S-EX- marriage. But how will the politics play out come November? That’s the question we’re tackling today on the Bottom Line.
Strategists on both sides of the issue – and from both Presidential campaigns – have told me the politics are likely to be a wash. Hard to read – and certain not to supplant the economy as the campaign’s top issue. No question that’s right. To borrow a phrase from Donald Rumsfeld, Obama’s shift raises more “known unknowns” than firm conclusions. So I have more questions about the politics of same-S-EX- marriage right now than answers.
Here are my top nine:
#1 – Will this fire up Christian Conservatives who have had some real qualms about Mitt Romney and skepticism about his Mormon faith? Enough to put them enthusiastically in Romney’s camp in solid numbers?
#2 – Did this cost President Obama North Carolina? We saw the results of the referendum on Tuesday with 79 percent of the electorate supporting a ban on same-S-EX- marriage. Additionally twenty percent of voters in the Democratic primary voted against Obama, which could show that he’s got some trouble in a state he won four years ago.
#3 – Will this motivate under 30 voters enough to get their turnout back to 2008 levels? We know they haven’t been “fired up” yet, but it’s also true that young voters are driving support for g*y marriage. According to our ABC News/ Washington Post poll 61 percent of voters under the age of 40 support same-S-EX- marriage compared to only 40% of voters over the age of 65 who support it. Will Obama’s shift make them believe again that he’s the candidate of “hope and change?”
#4 – On the flip side, how much will older voters be turned off? Are they more likely to focus on Obama’s stance on g*y marriage, or Romney’s plans for Medicare? That’s the key question for this group – and how they turn could make the difference in the mega battleground of Ohio. Same goes for Iowa – and Obama’s marriage shift could put Wisconsin in play for Romney too.
#5 – A majority of African American voters are against g*y marriage, but will Obama’s support for this issue reduce turnout in the black community in November?( I doubt it). (Yahoo! News)
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